Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Three seasons, 2007-08-09
Geelong's extraordinary era

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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Another scoring quirk from finals

Geelong kept its opposition goalless in the final quarter in both the Grand Final and the preceding game, the Preliminary Final:
 

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Scoring features for 2009

CLUB BY CLUB

FINALISTS

St Kilda – 1st (20-2 155.7%); last year 4th (13-9 110.6%)

* Has leaped from ninth (11-10-1) in 2007, to fourth (13-9) in 2008, to first (20-2) in 2009.  This is St Kilda’s best ever return in a home-and-away season (previous 16-6 in 2004 and 1971)
* Won 19 consecutive matches before dropping its first game in Rd 20.  This is the Saints’ best ever winning sequence, and second to Essendon (2000) for a start to a season
* Average score for is 99.9 points per game (96.6 in 2008; 85.2 in 2007) and its best since 109.4 in 2005
* Has topped the century on 12 occasions (10 in 2008; 6 in 2007), the most since 14 in 2005
* Average score against is a superb 64.1 points per game (87.4 in 2008; 88.2 in 2007), the lowest since 22 round seasons commenced in 1970, and the best since the Saints themselves averaged 63.15 in 1968
* Only one century against St Kilda (10 in 2008; 7 in 2007) is the least since nil in 1964
* Has held the opposition to below 50 points on 7 occasions (3 in 2008) (8 in 1968).  Has held opponents to below 40 points on 3 occasions (the same as Adelaide) (also 3 in 1968)
* Has held the opposition scoreless in 5 quarters, the best ever by the Saints, and the best by any club since North Melb (5 in 1967) and Footscray (8 in 1950)
* Accuracy for is 54.9 per cent (322 goals 265 behinds) ie 54.9% of scoring shots are goals (53.2% in 2008).  Accuracy against is 54.1% (206 goals 175 behinds) (52.2% in 2008)
* Is 9-0 in 40-point games (5-4 in 2008); 6-0 in 50-point games (2-2 in 2008) and 4-0 in 60 point games (2-0 in 2008)
* The Saints are 3-2 in 12-point matches this season (4-1 in 2008), and 5-2 in 18-point matches 95-3 in 2008)

Geelong – 2nd (18-4 127.4%); last year 1st (21-1 161.8%)

* Has completed the best three consecutive home-and-away years in VFL/AFL history – 18-4 (152.7%) in 2007; 21-1 (161.8%) in 2008; and 18-4 (127.4%) in 2009.  Aggregate 57-9 (previous, Essendon 56-10 in 1999-2001).  For more detail, see Michael Rogers’ Results webpage
* Has fallen away following the one-goal loss to St Kilda in the Rd 14 epic, slipping from 13-0 to 18-4
* Average score for is 105.1 points per game (121.5 in 2008; 115.5 in 2007).  The Cats’ 2009 performance represents a reduction of more than 16 points per game which has impacted on its overall performance
* Average score against is 82.5 points per game (75.0 in 2008; 75.6 in 2007).  Once again, there is a significant deterioration in performance.  The aggregate represents a reduction of average margin of around four goals per game
* Highest score of the season is 134 points (182 in 2008; 222 in 2007)
* Greatest winning margin is 93 points (135 in 2008; 157 in 2007)
* Accuracy for is 53.7% (55.1% in 2008)
* Accuracy against is 57.2% (50.9 in 2008).  This is the loosest the Cats’ defence has been since 57.9 per cent (highest on record) in 2003
* Three wins by 60 points is the least since 2004 (8 in 2008 and 2007)
* Registered a century in each of the first 10 rounds (club record) but only two in the last 12 rounds
* Defensively, there is still a lot to like.  It has conceded 4 centuries (3 in 2008; 4 in 2007), and the highest score registered against the Cats is 114 points, the lowest since 105 points in 1966
* Is 5-1 in 12-point matches (3-0 in 2008) (7-1 in 1974), and 4-1 in six-point matches (1-0 in 2008) (4-1 in 1994).  The Cats have mastered close finishes in the past two seasons

Western Bulldogs – 3rd (15-7 122.6%); last year 3rd (15-6-1 118.7%)

* Have flourished this season after losing three straight in Rd 4-6
* Average score for is 108.1 points per game, the best in the competition (113.9 in 2008; 96.0 in 2007)
* Average score against is 88.2 points per game (96.0 in 2008; 112.0 in 2007).  The 2009 figure is the Bulldogs’ lowest since 86.6 in 1994
* Have been the heaviest scorer of centuries over the past two seasons – 16 so far this season; 17 in 2008, which was the best ever by the Bulldogs
* 7 centuries against is the lowest since 4 in 1998
* 4 wins in 60-point games is their best ever (3 in 2008 and 1999)
* Lowest score for the season is 61 points; the highest since 73 points in 2001
* Highest against is 133 points, the lowest (best) since 131 points in 1977
* Their worst loss is 43 points, the lowest (best) since 46 points in 2002
* Accuracy for is 56.3% (57.0% in 2008).  This is a high figure – an excellent result indicating most efficient goal-shooting.  Accuracy against is 54.6% (53.8% in 2008), the highest (worst) since 56.1% in 2003
* Are 0-3 in six-point games, which has cost them third place.  This is the Bulldogs’ poorest return since 0-3 in 1961, and they made the Grand Final in that year

Collingwood – 4th (15-7 122.3%); last year 8th (12-10 111.2%)

* Improved to 15-7 (12-10 in 2008),  The Magpies were 15-7 in 2003, and their previous best finish was 16-6 in 1992
* Was teetering at 3-5 before striking a splendid seem of form.  Are 12-2 since then
* Average score for is 98.8 points per game (103.0 in 2008; 91.4 in 2007)
* Average score against is 80.8 points per game (92.6 in 2008; 90.5 in 2007), the Magpies’ best since 78.5 in 1988
* Accuracy for is 51.4% (54.1% in 2008; 48.1% in 2007).  Accuracy against is 50.7% (53.0% in 2008; 52.2% in 2007)
* Highest score for the season is 169 points (173 in 2008)
* On the other hand its lowest score of the season of 40 points v St Kilda in Rd 7 was its lowest since 39 points v Adelaide in 1997
* The lowest score kicked against the Magpies is also 40 points, by Carlton in Rd 17, the lowest since 28 by St Kilda in 2002
* Has won 8 matches by 40 points or more, the Magpies’ most since 9 in 2003.  Has won 6 matches by 50 points or more, the most since 7 in 1991

Adelaide – 5th (14-8 117.6%); last year 5th (13-9 109.7%)

* Has edged upward after slumping in 2007 – eighth on 12-10 in 2007; fifth on 13-9 in 2008; fifth on 14-8 in 2009
* Slipped to 3-5 before returning to the winners’ list with seven straight victories.  Struggled in recent matches until it sizzled against Carlton in the final round, rattling up the highest score of the season – 176 points
* Average score for is 95.6 points per game (91.7 in 2008; 85.5 in 2007; 106.0 in 2006).  Average score against is 81.3 points per game (83.5 in 2008; 77.8 in 2007).  Statistically, the Crows are the second best performed in defence in the 2000s behind Sydney
* Held Fremantle to 1.7-13 in Rd 15, the lowest VFL/AFL score since Richmond’s 0.8-8 v St Kilda in 1961
* Ironically, 8 centuries scored against Adelaide in 2009 are the most since 8 in 2004
* On the other hand, has held the opposition to 39 points or fewer on 3 occasions (the same as St Kilda), the most against the Crows in its history
* Accuracy for is 54.0% (49.3% in 2008), its best since 55.0% in 2003.  Accuracy against is 54.7% (48.3% in 2008) is the highest (worst) since 55.0% in 2004
* Is 5-1 in 18-point games (4 of the wins are in the range 13-18 points)

Brisbane Lions – 6th (13-8-1 106.7%); last year 10th (10-12 98.0%)

* Has improved to secure its first finals appearance since 2004.  Was tenth in both 2007 and 2008 – 10-12 in 2008; 9-11-2 in 2007
* As in 2008, the Lions looked premising for a finals berth at 7-4 at the half-way mark.  This season they didn’t fall away (to the same extent)
* Average score for is 91.7 points per game (98.0 in 2008; 90.3 in 2007).  Average score against is 85.9 points per game (100.0 in 2008; 85.7 in 2007)
* Its score of 33 points v Geelong in Rd 5 is the club’s lowest since 30 points v Melbourne in 1994.  The same match produced the Lions a loss by 93 points, their heaviest since 139 points v St Kilda in 2005
* Has conceded 5 century scores, the least since 3 in both 2003 and 2004
* Accuracy in front of goal improved remarkably after a series of seasons with low value for effort.  Its 56.5% this season (48.9% in 2008; 49.6% in 2007; 47.8% in 2006) is the club’s best (prev 56.3% in 2000)
* Accuracy against is 52.0% (54.6% in 2008; 47.9% in 2007)
* During the 2000s the Lions are 14-26-4 in 12-point games, and 28-39-4 in 18-point games.  This season they are 2-1-1 in 12-point games, and 5-4-1 in 18-point games, a marked improvement.

Carlton – 7th (13-9 110.4%); last year 11th (10-12 94.2%)

* Has improved consistently, from 15th place (4-18) in 2007 to 11th place (10-12) in 2008, and now 7th place (13-9) in 2009.  This is its most successful season since 2001
* Inconsistency dogged the Blues till Rd 13, when they were 6-7; their season has turned around as they marched to 13-8, but the last round failure against the Crows again raised the question of consistency
* Average score for is 103.1 points per game (100.8 in 2008; 98.5 in 2007) its best since 105.0 in 2001
* Average score against is 93.4 points per game (107.0 in 2008; 132.3 in 2007) (lowest since 81.7 in 2001).  That’s an improvement of nearly seven goals per game in two years
* In 2007 there were 21 consecutive centuries kicked against the Blues’ “defence”; Last year 12, and this year only 9
* Percentage of 110.4 (94.2 in 2008) is its best since 128.6% in 2001
* Accuracy for is 55.1% (53.7% in 2008), the best since 55.3% in 2004.  Accuracy against is 54.1% (54.8% in 2008), its best since 53.0% in 2001
* Its 83-point win v Richmond in Rd 1 was its biggest since 119 points v West Coast in 2001
* 14 century scores is the most since 17 in 2000
* 7 wins by 40 points or more is the most since 9 in 2001; 5 wins by 50 points or more is the most since 7 in 2001
* Its biggest loss was by 72 points; in all seasons since 2001 it has had at least one loss of more than 78 points (in most cases several)

Essendon – 8th (10-11-1 97.8); last year 12th (8-14 81.7)

* Has not really improved that much since climbing from the lower reaches of the ladder after 2006 - 12th (10-12) in 2007; 12th (8-14) in 2008; 8th (10-11-1) in 2009.  That said, its improvement compared to 2008 is marked
* Very similar to Hawthorn.  Reached 8-7 before dropping three games, drawing one, but then caused the season’s boilover, inflicting St Kilda’s first loss
* Has had a season of extremes – for instance, great wins v Collingwood in Rd 5, Carlton in Rd 13, and St Kilda in Rd 19 balanced by painful losses to Richmond in Rd 17, and twice in Perth Rd 18 and 21
* Average score for is 94.5 points per game (96.8 in 2008; 99.3 in 2007; 91.9 in 2006)
* Average score against is 96.7 points per game (118.5 in 2008; 108.8 in 2007) its best since 89.1 in 2003
* The 10 centuries kicked against the Dons (17 in 2008) is their best result since 8 in 2004
* Is 4-4 in 40-point games (2-8 in 2008)
* Is 3-1-1 in six-point games (1-2 in 2008; 3-1 in 2007), and 4-1-1 in 12-point games (1-3 in 2008; 7-2 in 2007)
* Accuracy for is 53.6% (56.8% in 2008).  Accuracy against is 53.7% (55.8% in 2008)

NON-FINALISTS

Hawthorn – 9th (9-13 92.5); last year 2nd (17-5 131.9)

* Has jumped around on the ladder in recent seasons - fifth place (13-9) in 2007; second place (17-5) in 2008; 9th place (9-13) in 2009
* Hasn’t developed much traction this year.  After thrashing Collingwood in Rd 16 it was 8-8, but proceeded to drop four in a row
* Average score for was 89.2 points per game (110.6 in 2008; 95.3 in 2007; 83.4 in 2006).  Average score against was 96.4 points per game (83.9 in 2008; 84.3 in 2007; 97.3 in 2006).  That represents a deterioration of nearly six goals per match compared to last season
* Accuracy for of 53.1% (53.3 in 2008 and 2007).  Accuracy against was 51.9% (51.6% in 2008)
* Its heaviest defeat – 88 points v Bulldogs in Rd 14 – was the largest since 96 points v Port Adelaide in 2006
* Has scored 8 centuries (18 in 2008; 9 in 2007; 8 in 2006).  10 centuries against (6 in 2008; 5 in 2007; 13 in 2006)
* Was 3-3 in 40-point games (11-0 in 2008), and 1-1 in 50-point games 10-0 in 2008)

Port Adelaide – 10th (9-13 88.7); last year 13th (7-15 95.9)

* Improved slightly this season from its worst ever return of 7-15 in 2008.  Port looked a prospective finalist for most of this season, being 4-2, then 6-5, before falling heavily in many latter games
* Average score for was 90.5 points per game (96.3 in 2008; 105.2 in 2007; 86.9 in 2006)
* Its 36 points v St Kilda in Rd 5 was its second lowest.  Port’s record low is 32 points (a winning tally) v Richmond in 1999
* Average score against was 102.0 points per game (100.4 in 2008; 92.6 in 2007.  Only once before, in 2000 (104.3 points per game) has Port performed more poorly in defence
* Biggest win was 57 points.  In every year since 2000 it has had at least one bigger win
* Booted 9 centuries and had 13 “tons” kicked against it, the same return as 2008
* Accuracy for was 53.7% (53.9% in 2008).  Accuracy against was 56.8% (53.2% in 2008), its poorest on record (prev 56.5% in 2000).  Like Geelong, Port lets goals through its defence too easily
* Its percentage of 88.7 per cent is its lowest since 84.0 in 2000
* In 10 quarters this season Port was outscored by five goals or more, previous high seven in 2005 – most un-Port-like
* Was 3-7 in 40 point games (3-4 in 2008) (0-7 in 1999).  Was 1-6 in 50-point games (3-4 in 2008), its poorest on record

West Coast Eagles – 11th (8-14 93.3); last year 15th (4-18 65.9)

* Has shown encouraging improvement this season.  The Eagles looked promising at 3-4 but slumped to 4-13 before rallying late in the season.
* Average score for was 86.0 points per game (75.9 in 2008; 98.3 in 2007)
* Average score against was 92.2 points per game (115.2 in 2008; 88.0 in 2007).  The combined effect represents a marked improvement of between five and six goals per game
* Kicked 7 century totals this season (three in 2008); had six booted against it (15 in 2008)
* Accuracy for was 51.0% (48.2% in 2008; 51.8% in 2007).  Accuracy against was 54.6% (56.8% in 2008; 52.2% in 2007)
* Was 1-2 in 60-point games (0-8 in 2008); and 2-2 in 50-point games (1-9 in 2008)
* Was 2-6 in 18-point games (3-3 in 2008) (2-6 in 1997)

Sydney Swans – 12th (8-14 93.1); last year 6th (12-9-1 112.5)

* Has dipped markedly after 12-9-1 returns and finals action in the past two seasons
* Reached 5-4 and fifth place before losing four straight and losing touch with the eight.  A late minor rally raised hopes, but it had fallen too far behind to threaten
* Average score for was 85.8 points per game (95.2 in 2008; 92.3 in 2007), its poorest effort since 81.7 in 1975
* Average score against was 92.1 points per game (84.7 in 2008; 77.2 in 2007) the highest (worst) since 100.9 in 2000
* Highest score against was 124 points.  Not since Rd 8, 2002 has Sydney conceded a score of more than 133 points, a wonderful record, particularly given the team’s overall decline this season
* Biggest win was by 55 points v Richmond in Rd 19.  In every season since 1994 the Swans have registered a bigger win
* Biggest loss was by 61 points v Carlton in Rd 16, its heaviest since 2004 when Port defeated the Swans by 72 points in Rd 12, 2004
* Sydney conceded 9 century totals (also 9 in 2008), the most since 12 in 2000
* Accuracy for was 55.8% (51.6% in 2008), the best since 57.1% in 2004.  Accuracy against was 52.8% (49.9 in 2008; 52.6% in 2007)
* Were 2-4 in 40-point games, the poorest return since 0-5 in 1994

North Melbourne – 13th (7-14-1 82.6); last year 7th (12-9-1 97.0)

* Have slumped from fourth (14-8) in 2007, to seventh (12-9-1) in 2008, and 13th (7-14-1) in 2009
* Reached a hopeful 4-5 before dropping six straight, then drew and lost two more, finally winning after nine matches without singing the song
* Average score was 76.4 points per game (96.4 in 2008; 99.2 in 2007; 79.7 in 2006) a dramatic drop to its lowest ebb since 74.0 in 1972.  Notched a mere three centuries (same as 2006)
* North’s highest score was 125 points.  In every season since 1975 it has registered at least one higher tally.  (Remarkable that in 1975, its first premiership year, North scored so modestly – its highest for the season came when most needed – in the Grand Final)
* Average score against was 91.6 points per game (99.4 in 2008; 90.8 in 2007).  This is a great effort considering the Kangaroos scored so poorly in 2009
* Its heaviest loss was 70 points.  In every season since 2002 the Roos have suffered at least one loss of greater magnitude
* Highest score against was 127 points.  In every season since 1998 it has had at least one higher score kicked against It
* Accuracy for was 53.0% (54.3% in 2008; 51.2% in 2007).  Accuracy against was 53.3% (53.3% in 2008; 49.7% in 2007)
* Was 1-6 in 40-point games (3-3 in 2008; 3-4 in 2007; 1-6 in 2006)
* Was 3-0-1 in six-point games (3-0-1 in 2008).  Like Geelong, the Roos are good in the very tight ones.

Fremantle – 14th (6-16 77.3); last year 14th (6-16 93.7)

* Its 6-16 is the same as last season, albeit having suffered heavier defeats, rather than the narrow losses of 2008.  This season the Dockers won consecutive matches in Rd 5-7 then lost nine straight
* Average score for was 79.4 points per game (90.4 in 2008; 102.5 in 2007), its lowest since 79.0 in 1998.  The Dockers managed just five century scores, its lowest return since four in 2002
* In Rd 15, Fremantle could only muster 1.7-13 against Adelaide, its lowest ever score, and lowest in the competition for 48 years
* Average score against was 102.7 points per game (96.4 in 2008), which is the only 100+ average for Fremantle since 113.2 in 2001.  Had 11 centuries kicked against it (same as 2008)
* The Rd 15 loss was by 117 points (the only 100-point result for the season) which equals its previous heaviest defeat suffered in Rd 6, 2000 at the hands of its cross-town rival
* Accuracy for was 53.2% (51.9% in 2008; 56.5% in 2007).  Accuracy against was 56.1% (54.3% in 2008), the highest since 57.4% in 2002
* Percentage of 77.3 is its lowest since 72.0 in 2001
* Was 0-5 in 60-point matches (0-2 in 2008), its poorest since 0-8 in 2000
* Was 2-1 in 12-point matches (08- in 2008) and 3-4 in 18-point matches (1-10 in 2008)

Richmond – 15th (5-16-1 74.3); last year 9th (11-10-1 97.4)

* Has yo-yoed from ninth (11-11) in 2006, to wooden spooner (3-18-1) in 2007, ninth (11-10-1) in 2008 and 15th (5-16-1) this season
* Average score for was 80.6 points per game (101.3 in 2008; 89.0 in 2007) its lowest since 77.0 in 2004
* Average score against was 108.5 points per game (104.0 in 2008; 115.3 in 2007)
* It’s top score was 115 points, the lowest since 105 points in 2004
* Its biggest win was by 36 points.  In every season since 1960 the Tigers have recorded a larger win
* Booted just two “tons” (13 in 2008), the lowest figure since one in 2004
* Had 14 centuries kicked against it (same as 2008; 14 in 2007)
* Accuracy for was 51.1% (57.8% in 2008; 53.5% in 2007; 51.1% in 2006)  Accuracy against was 53.7% (54.6% in 2008; 53.9% in 2007)
* Was 0-9 in 40-point matches (3-6 in 2008) exhibiting the widest gap since 1-11 in 2004
* Was 3-1-1 in six-point matches (same as 2008).  The Tigers are good in very tight finishes, in company with the Cats and Kangaroos

Melbourne – last (4-18 74.7); last year last (3-19 62.6)

* Twelve wins in three seasons represents a very meagre rate of success - 14th (5-17) in 2007; last (3-19) in 2008; last (4-18) this season.  The Demons’ 12-54 for 2007-09 compares with Carlton’s 11-53-2 in 2005-07.  The smallest return since the 22-round seasons began in 1970 is Fitzroy’s 8-58 in its final three seasons.  For more detail, see Michael Rogers’ Results
* Average score for was 77.5 points per game (74.0 in 2008; 86.0 in 2007)
* Melbourne’s season lowest score of 34 points was its smallest since 27 points in 1997
* Average score against was 103.9 points per game (118.3 in 2008; 109.9 in 2007; 89.0 in 2006)
* Its 63-point win v Fremantle in Rd 20 was its biggest since 75 points v Hawthorn in Rd 8, 2006
* Had 13 century scores notched against it (17 last year)
* Accuracy for was 56.5% (51.0% in 2008), its highest since 56.7% in 2000.  Accuracy against was 53.1% (52.1% in 2008), which is very close to the Demons’ track records in the past half-dozen seasons
* Was 1-2 in 60-point games (0-7 in 2008)
* Was 2-5 in 18-point games (2-1 in 2008) which only really indicates that the Demons at least got close to other clubs in a number of matches this season, whereas that didn’t happen much in 2008.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Looking back – how Round 22 of 2008 unfolded

Here's the story of the last round of 2008 ...

The ladder at the end of Rd 21:

Round 22 matches:

Fri evening – Fremantle v Collingwood
Looked a regulation win for the Magpies against the 14th-placed Dockers, even in Perth. The Pies would rise to fourth in the unlikely event of a North loss.

Sat – North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
North looked to have a simple task to retain the double-chance against disappointing Port, 13th, at home, and with all to play for.

Sat – Geelong v West Coast
Of no consequence.

Sat – Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
At the outset, there seemed little likelihood either side would improve. The Crows had the incentive of ensuring a home final should they win.

Sat evening – Carlton v Hawthorn
Of no interest, apart from Buddy and Fev gunning for triple-figure season goal-kicking figures.

Sat evening – Sydney v Brisbane
It appeared there was nothing hanging on this one. The Swans couldn’t drop out due to the big percentage advantage over the Tigers. The chances of Sydney gaining a home final looked extremely long, needing at least two sides above them to fall over.

Sun – Melbourne v Richmond
Of no consequence.

Sun twilight – Essendon v St Kilda
The Saints, should they win, were hopeful of a home final, but nothing more.

How it unfolded:

Fremantle 12.8 d Collingwood 8.8
What a shock to start the ball rolling. The Magpies never seriously threatened.

That result gave most hope to St Kilda which looked certain to beat the Bombers. It also gave Adelaide a chance of rising to fifth.

North Melbourne 10.12 v Port Adelaide 23.10
Another shock. Port steam-rolled the Roos after an even first term.

This result had big consequences. Fourth place was open. Adelaide had first dibs on it. St Kilda also eyed it, as the Crows still had to jump the Bulldog hurdle at Football Park.

Adelaide 10.16 d Western Bulldogs 9.13
The Dogs had been in poor form, so this result wasn’t altogether surprising. The Crows only won it late; the scores had been locked together at the final change.

Adelaide moved to fourth place, at least temporarily. But its percentage advantage against nearest rival, St Kilda, looked likely to guarantee the Crows the double chance.

Sydney 17.12 d Brisbane 6.17
The Swans entered this match knowing they would have a home final if they won. The result was never in doubt.

The eight at the end of a most eventful Saturday was:

More than likely, St Kilda would rise to fifth with a win against the Dons, and thus deny North home final.

Essendon 5.9 v St Kilda 21.21
The unthinkable happened. The Saints got on a roll and the momentum increased. By three-quarter time they knew a “big” last term could see them overtake the Crows on percentage. Indeed that was what happened. The 46 000 at Docklands willed the Saints, goal-by-goal, and the players responded. There were ecstatic scenes, an outpouring of excitement. St Kilda had jumped from eighth to fourth. Only after heads had cooled did they face the fact they would be pitted against the then all-conquering Cats in the first final.

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Looking back – how Round 22 of 2007 unfolded

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Bruce Kennedy
100-point results

  Back to the Diary 

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Bruce Kennedy
How long since we won three in-a-row?
How long since we lost three-in-a-row?

Monday, July 13, 2009

Bruce Kennedy
Where will your team finish
based on its performance to Round 15?

Teams in seventh place are also a 10 in 14 chance of playing in the finals.  Sydney (1998 and 2006) broke into the top four.  The four which dropped out of the finals were Melbourne (1995), Collingwood (2001), the Bulldogs (2007), and Brisbane (2008).

Carlton is seventh in 2009, and with a reasonable draw.  Prediction – seventh.

EIGHTH PLACE

Teams in eighth place are a 9 in 14 chance of holding a finals place.  No side in eighth place at Rd 15 has been there at the end – they either improve or drop out.  Fremantle rose to third place in 2006; Melbourne (1998) and St Kilda (2008) lifted to fourth.  By contrast, Hawthorn crashed to fifteenth in 1997.

Essendon is eighth in 2009, but with a draw set to give it a stern test.  Prediction – eighth.

NINTH PLACE

Teams in ninth place have a 7 in 14 chance of snatching a finals berth.  St Kilda rose from ninth to fourth in 2005.  North Melbourne rose to seventh last year.

Port Adelaide is ninth in 2009, with a relatively easy draw, but realistically needs six wins to be a chance of overtaking the Dons.  Prediction – ninth.

TENTH PLACE

Teams in tenth place are a 5 in 14 chance of making the finals, but none have won a finals match (although Geelong in 1994 reached fourth place and were runners-up after being tenth at Rd 15).  At the other end of the spectrum, Hawthorn itself fell to fifteenth in 1995.

Hawthorn is tenth in 2009, and looks unlikely to make the cut due to a fierce draw.  If the Hawks do make it, watch out!  Prediction – 10th

ELEVENTH PLACE

Only one team, North Melbourne in 1997, has made the finals.  In 1997 there were 10 teams on 7 or 8 wins at Rd 15 – a late charger had every chance of making the finals.

Sydney Swans are 11th in 2009.  Prediction – 11th

TWELFTH AND THIRTEENTH PLACES

Teams in twelfth and thirteenth places have not made the finals.

West Coast Eagles and North Melbourne are 12th and 13th in 2008.  Prediction – Eagles 11th; North 14th.

FOURTEENTH PLACE

Brisbane amazed everyone in 1995 by snatching eighth place from fourteenth place at Rd 15.  The Bears (6-1 in the last seven games) climbed above six sides, none of which could do better than a 3-4 record in the final seven matches.  Very unusual.  Ironically, Brisbane in 1998 is the only team in 14th place to annex the wooden spoon.

Richmond is 14th in 2009.  My prediction – 12th.

FIFTEENTH PLACE

Teams in 15th place have a 7 in 14 chance of improving their position, and a 2 in 14 chance of capturing the wooden spoon.  Richmond in 2004 became the first team to sink to the bottom, and Carlton in 2006 repeated the dose.

Melbourne is 15th in 2008.  My prediction – 13th.

SIXTEENTH PLACE

Teams holding up the ladder are very likely to continue to do that.  In 11 out of 14 seasons the bottom side at Rd 15 has stayed put.  Hawthorn in 1998, and 2004, and Essendon in 2006 managed to escape from the cellar.

Fremantle is 16th in 2009.  My prediction – wooden spoon.

STATISTICAL EXTREMES

The best rises in position after Rd 15

Brisbane 1995 – six places – 14th to eighth (4-11 to 10-12)
North Melb 1998 – five places – sixth to first (9-6 to 16-6)
Hawthorn 1999 – five places – 14th to ninth (5-9-1 to 10-11-1)
St Kilda 2005 – five places – ninth to fourth (8-7 to 14-8)
Fremantle 2006 – five places – eighth to third (8-7 to 15-7)

Teams which have won all their remaining home and away matches from Rd 15

Carlton 1995 – Premier
St Kilda 1997 – Runner-up
North Melb 1998 – Runner-up
Essendon 1999 – Preliminary finalist
Brisbane 1999 – Preliminary finalist
Brisbane 2001 – Premier
Port Adel 2003 – Preliminary finalist
Adelaide 2005 – Preliminary finalist
Fremantle 2006 – Preliminary finalist
Geelong 2008 – Runner-up

The worst falls after Rd 15

Hawthorn 1997 – seven places – eighth to 15th (8-7 to 8-14)
Richmond 2000 – six places – third to ninth (9-6 to 11-11)
Richmond 2005 – six places – sixth to 12th (9-6 to 10-12)
Western Bulldogs 2007 – six places – seventh to 13th (9-6 to 9-12-1)
Hawthorn 1995 – five places – 10th to 15th (7-8 to 7-15)
Richmond 1998 – five places – fourth to ninth (9-6 to 12-10)
West Coast 2003 – five places – second to seventh (10-4-1 to 12-8-2)

Special mention
West Coast 2005 – one place – but contrived to vacate top place after being four games clear at Rd 15 (14-1 to 17-5)

Teams which have lost all their remaining home and away matches from Rd 15

Hawthorn 1995 – 10th to 15th (7-8 to 7-15)
Hawthorn 1997 – eighth to 15th (8-7 to 8-14)
Fitzroy 1995 and 1996 – last place (2-13 to 2-20 and 1-14 to 1-21)
Melbourne 1999 and 2003 – no significant change (6-9 to 6-16 and 5-10 to 5-17)
Carlton 2003 – no change (4-11 to 4-18)
Richmond 2004 – 15th to 16th (4-11 to 4-18)

Collingwood 2005 – 13th to 15th (5-10 to 5-17)
Carlton 2007 – 14th to 15th (4-11 to 4-18)

Top eight sides at Rd 15 which have collapsed by finishing 1-6

Melbourne 1995 – seventh to ninth (8-7 to 9-13)
West Coast 1999 – first to fifth (11-4 to 12-10)
Richmond 2005 – sixth to 12th (9-6 to 10-12)

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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Bruce Kennedy – analysis The first 11 rounds Saints and Cats too far in front to catch, or are they?

Never have two clubs been on 11-0 at the half-way mark of the season. Does this mean the Saints and Cats are “home’ in 2009? Not necessarily. And only one team can win a premiership, no matter how good is its home and away performance. Ask Geelong – it finished on 21-1 last season and couldn’t bring home the cup. Pertinently, St Kilda was 10-0 in 2004, before finishing on 16-6, and bowing out in the Preliminary Final. Geelong in 1953 went to 13-0 before fading to 15-3, and was beaten twice by Collingwood in the finals. Hawthorn and Carlton were both 10-1 in 1975, four games ahead of the field. The Hawks topped the table on 17-5, but were no match for the Roos who won their first flag; Carlton ended on 16-6 and lost both its finals. It is worth remembering that whether the top clubs win 15 games (that’s all it took for the Saints to top the table in 1997) or 22 (or finish eight matches clear) to finish No 1 and 2, they have to play the teams finishing No 3 and 4 in the first week of the finals. If one or both of No 3 and 4 are strong finishers, there is no guarantee that a potentially fatigued No 1 and 2 must survive. Games decided by 60 points or more Only five clubs, coincidentally, the top five, have achieved wins by 10 goals or more so far in 2009. Their records are Saints 4-0, Cats 3-0, Bulldogs 2-0, Blues and Magpies each 1-0. At the other end of the scale, the Dockers and Tigers are each 0-2. Three sides, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Sydney have not been involved in a 60-point finish this season to date. Games decided by 40 points or more The top four again dominate – Geelong 6-0, St Kilda 5-0, Carlton and the Bulldogs each 4-1. At the other end of the list are North Melbourne, Melbourne and Richmond each 0-4. These stats merely reinforce who’s hot and who’s not. Games decided by 18 points or fewer The Crows are 3-0, hawks 3-1, and Saints and Cats each 2-0. The top sides win their close ones, too. At the opposite end of the spectrum are West Coast and Carlton each 1-4 and Melbourne 1-3. Inability to convert close matches has cost the Blues a chance of virtually securing a finals spot already, while for the Eagles it has left them in an almost impossible position to gain a finals place. Draws and games decided by one point There have been none, which is rather unusual. During the 2000s the average number of draws per season has been 1.7, and one-point games 4.3. Maybe we are in for a feast of them later in the season. Scoring trends The average score per team per match is currently 92.8 points. The comparative figure for last season was 99.6 points after 11 rounds. So far there have been only 12 scores of 20 goals or more. Between 2001 and 2008 the complete season figure was in the range 37 to 46. Current trends suggest the final total for 2009 may be the lowest for several decades. Thanks almost exclusively to St Kilda’s superb defence, the number of very low scores could be the highest for a similar period. Thus far there have been four tallies of below 40 points, the most since 2002. Accuracy throughout the competition is the best since 2000 and if maintained there is a chance it could be the best ever for a season. Of every 100 scoring shots, 54.7 have resulted in goals (54.0 at the same stage in 2008; 50.7 in 2007). The comparative figure in 2000 was 55.2. The figure for 2007 was the lowest for 26 years. The average number of scoring shots per team per game has dropped in 2009. It is currently 24.8 (26.9 at the same stage last year; 25.9 in 2007). In recent seasons the highest has been in 2000 when there were 27.5 shots per team per game. Thus far there have been four scores of 150 points or more (9 to the same stage last year; 2 in 2007). In 2008 eventually there were 16 such scores; 15 in 2007. There were 17 in 2005 and 21 in 2001. Each club Adelaide (2009 9th 6-5 95.9%) (2008 4th 8-3 120.9%) Twice have held the opposition goalless in the first half. This is the first time since 1961 a team has done this more than once – in that season the Saints held three sides goalless in the first half Average score per game is 89.8 points (103.1 points per game same time last year) Average score against is 93.6 points (85.3 points per game same time last year). Accuracy for – 56.6 (50.0 in 2008); accuracy against – 56.3 (52.7 in 2008) Scoring shots for – 23.5 per game (29.5 in 2008); scoring shots against – 24.5 per game (23.5 in 2008). * Has held its opposition goalless in five quarters so far in 2009, which compares to two in the whole of last season. * Is 3-0 in games decided by 18 points or fewer, which has proven more than useful in gaining a foothold in the eight Brisbane (2009 6th 6-5 101.4%) (2008 7th 7-4 111.4%) Average score per game is 92.2 points (108.3 points per game same time last year). Average score against is 90.9 points (96.1 points per game same time last year). Accuracy for – 61.4 (49.9 in 2008) which is a huge improvement; accuracy against – 51.4 (53.7 in 2008). Scoring shots for – 22.6 (31.0 in 2008), so it’s just as well the Lions’ accuracy is good; scoring shots against – 25.5 (26.1 in 2008) Has been held goalless in three quarters so far this season, compared to two for the whole of 2008, which has been a factor in Brisbane being unable to make any sort of break on rivals for a spot in the current eight. Carlton (2009 4th 6-5 117.0%) (2008 10th 5-6 92.0%) Average score per game is 104.6 points (94.8 points per game same time last year). Average score against is 89.5 points (103.1 points per game same time last year). The Blues’ 83-point victory in Rd 1 is its biggest since 2001 when they drubbed the Eagles by 119 points in Rd 10 that year. Have conceded five century totals, which augurs well for the club completing its best defensive season since 2002 when the Blues conceded 10 triple-figure totals. Has topped the ton in eight matches which suggests the club will have its best return since 17 in 2000. Accuracy for – 55.2 (53.7 in 2008); accuracy against – 53.2 (54.6 in 2008). Scoring shots for – 27.8 (25.7 in 2008); scoring shots against – 24.5 (27.6 in 2008). Is 1-4 in matches decided by 18 points or fewer, so the six-point Rd 11 victory against the Lions could be most valuable in proving to the players they can win close ones. Collingwood (2009 5th 6-5 107.7%) (2008 6th 7-4 125.5%) Average score per game is 93.1 points (117.2 points per game same time last year). That’s a big decline, and has had significant impact. Average score against is 86.5 points (93.4 points per game same time last year). Have booted four century scores this season. The Magpies recorded 12 in all of 2008. Accuracy for – 50.9 (57.2 in 2008) a marked deterioration; accuracy against – 54.3 (54.2 last year). Scoring shots for – 26.3 (30.4 in 2008); scoring shots against – 23.3 (25.2 in 2008). The Magpies’ defence is holding the team in good stead this season. Essendon (2009 11th 5-6 94.0%) (2008 14th 2-9 69.7%) Average score per game is 91.4 points (86.8 points per game same time last year). Average score against is 97.2 points (124.6 points per game same time last year). This is a huge improvement. Accuracy for 53.1 (58.0 to same stage last year); accuracy against – 54.0 (54.9 in 2008) Scoring shots for – 25.0 per game (22.3 in 2008), a significant improvement; scoring shots against – 26.3 per game (33.3 in 2008), likewise a marked improvement. The Bombers are 3-0 in games decided by 12 points or fewer, a factor which is most pertinent to its position among the candidates for a finals place. Fremantle (2009 14th 3-8 79.7%) (2008 15th 1-10 84.5%) Average score per game is 81.9 points (87.5 points per game same time last year). Average score against is 102.7 points (103.5 points per game same time last year). Accuracy for – 53.3 (50.7 in 2008); accuracy against – 56.6 (52.5 in 2008). Scoring shots for – 22.4 (24.7 in 2008); scoring shots against – 26.8 (28.5 in 2008). The Dockers’ 4.4 v St Kilda in Rd 4 was their second lowest, and their eight scoring shots was the least by the club in any match it has played. The Bulldogs’ 25.7 v Fremantle in Rd 1 was the highest against the Dockers since Port booted 24.19 against them in Rd 14, 2001. Geelong (2009 2nd 11-0 153.0%) (2008 2nd 10-1 127.5%) Average score per game is 117.5 points (110.7 points per game same time last year). Average score against is 76.8 points (86.8 points per game same time last year). If St Kilda’s record wasn’t so impressive, we would be lauding Geelong’s fine effort this season. Scoring shots per game is 31.6 (30.3 in 2008); scoring shots against is 19.5 (24.1 in 2008) These figures indicate that the Cats’ defence has stabilised after a slightly more difficult first half of 2008. Accuracy for is 54.3 (53.2 in 2008); accuracy against is 58.6 (52.1 in 2008). The latter stat suggests that despite the modest number of points against, the record could have been even better. The Cats kicked 10 centuries on the trot – a club record – before managing just 99 points in Rd 11. Hawthorn (2009 7th 6-5 98.5%) (2008 1st 10-1 133.1%) Average score per game is 94.0 points (117.3 points per game same time last year). This is a dramatic decrease in 12 months. Average score against is 95.5 points (88.1 points per game same time last year). Centuries kicked against the Hawks so far this season – 6 – which compares with full season tallies of 6 in 2008 and 5 in 2007. Accuracy for – 56.9 (55.9 in 2008); accuracy against – 52.4 (54.8 in 2008) Scoring shots for – 24.5 (30.9 in 2008) a fairly dramatic drop off; scoring shots against – 26.4 (23.5 in 2008). The Hawks are 3-1 in 18-point games so far in 2009, which is just as well, as they maintain a tenuous grip on a place in the eight. Melbourne (2009 16th 1-10 70.4%) (2008 16th 1-10 60.6%) Average score per game is 72.7 points (76.9 points per game same time last year). Average score against is 103.3 points (127.0 points per game same time last year). Accuracy for – 54.4 (48.8 in 2008); accuracy against – 50.8 (52.2 in 2008). Scoring shots for – 19.5 (22.4 in 2008); scoring shots against – 29.2 (35.2 in 2008). There is little that is encouraging in the above figures, save that the Demons’ defence is holding on admirably. Melbourne has been defeated by 40 points or more on four occasions – not as frequently as one might have expected. Its attack is not producing the goods. The Demons have been held goalless in five quarters so far this season. Three losses by 18 points or fewer are also frustrating. North Melbourne (2009 12th 4-7 78.9%) (2008 8th 5-5-1 96.1%) Average score per game is 77.0 points (97.4 points per game same time last year). That’s a substantial drop. Average score against is 97.6 points (101.3 points per game same time last year). Accuracy for – 54.6 (54.9 in 2008); accuracy against – 54.3 (52.1 in 2008) Scoring shots for – 20.6 (26.0 in 2008), the Kangaroos simply don’t have the ball enough this season; scoring shots against – 26.3 (28.1 in 2008) North has had four losses by 40 points or more, while its biggest winning margin has been 34 points. The Roos had six losses by 40 points or more in 2006; before that, the highest is seven in 2001. The Roos are 2-0 in 12 –point games this season; without those they’d be out of contention completely. Port Adelaide (2009 8th 6-5 96.9%) (2008 11th 4-7 99.6%) Average score per game is 95.0 points (98.8 points per game same time last year). Average score against is 98.0 points (99.2 points per game same time last year). Accuracy for – 52.1 (55.7 in 2008); accuracy against – 60.4 (55.0 in 2008). Opponents are finding the big sticks quite easily against Port this season. Scoring shots for – 26.4 (26.1 in 2008); scoring shots against – 24.4 (26.5 in 2008). Port has lost three games by 50 points or more this season, and has won just one such game. This has hurt its percentage as it strives to keep pace with the pack fighting for a berth in the finals. Richmond (2009 15th 2-9 77.3%) (2008 12th 3-7-1 89.2%) Average score per game is 85.0 points (97.5 points per game same time last year; 84.1 in 2007). Average score against is 110.0 points (109.4 points per game same time last year). Accuracy for – 51.9 (58.6 in 2008); accuracy against – 55.6 (54.5 in 2008). Scoring shots for – 23.6 per game (24.8 in 2008); scoring shots against – 29.1 (29.4 in 2008). Have registered one century total, and conceded eight. During all of last season the Tigers topped the ton 13 times and had 13 booted against them. St Kilda (2009 1st 11-0 183.3%) (2008 9th 5-6 97.9%) Average score per game is 105.5 points (95.3 points per game same time last year; 81.4 in 2007). Average score against is 57.5 points (97.4 points per game same time last year; 95.6 in 2007). In 1966, Collingwood made it to Rd 11 with an average score against of 56.0 points per game. It finished the season on 58.5 points per game. The highest score kicked against the Saints so far is 81 points (13.3, ie 16 scoring shots) by Brisbane in Rd 9. The most recent season when a lower “highest score against” has been recorded is Melbourne, 78 points in 1960. In that season the average score against the Demons was 56.5 points per game. Has held its opposition scoreless in a quarter on three occasions (equals the Saints’ best since 1950 in a full season), and goalless in a quarter on nine occasions (most since 10 in the whole of 1968; St Kilda record since 1925 is 12 in 1961). The Saints have topped the century in seven matches, which compares with 10 for the whole of 2008, and 14 in 2005. Their best ever is 16 in 1991. The club has won four matches by 60 points or more. St Kilda’s best ever full season return is six in 2005. Accuracy for – 56.1 (54.1 in 2008; 49.5 in 2007); accuracy against – 51.1 (54.5 in 2008; 53.9 in 2007). Scoring shots for – 27.7 (25.7 in 2008; 24.5 in 2007); scoring shots against – 16.2 (25.1 in 2008; 24.1 in 2007). Sydney (2009 10th 5-6 96.4%) (2008 5th 7-3-1 133.6%) Average score per game is 90.8 points (99.1 points per game same time last year). Average score against is 94.2 points (74.2 points per game same time last year, 75.3 in 2007). So far this season, six centuries have been kicked against the Swans. Full season tallies since 2000 have been 12, 7, 8, 3, 7, 3, 3, 5 and 9. Accuracy for – 58.7 (53.9 in 2008); accuracy against – 55.1 (47.7 in 2008; 52.5 in 2007). Scoring shots for – 23.1 (26.8 in 2008); scoring shots against – 25.1 (21.9 in 2008). Sydney’s numbers, and in particular its defence, have been excellent during most of the 2000s. However, a glance at the above figures give the clearest indication yet that the side is fading. West Coast (2009 13th 3-8 87.2%) (2008 13th 2-9 72.8%) Average score per game is 84.1 points (77.3 points per game same time last year; 93.1 in 2007). Average score against is 96.5 points (106.2 points per game same time last year; 73.9 in 2007). This is a fair improvement in 12 months. The Eagles have notched three centuries so far this season, which equals their return for the whole of 2008. Three centuries have been booted against the Eagles. This compares with full season tallies of 6, 4, 5, 7, 7 and 15 in the last six seasons. The club appears to have resumed its good record of most of the 2000s. Accuracy for – 48.5 (49.4 in 2008; 51.8 in 2007) a real problem area; accuracy against – 56.9 (57.1 in 2008; 52.2 in 2007). Scoring shots for – 24.5 (22.3 in 2008; 26.7 in 2007); scoring shots against – 25.1 (27.5 in 2008; 24.2 in 2007). The Eagles are 1-4 in 18-point games, which is a major reason they have fallen out of the race for a finals berth. Western Bulldogs (2009 3rd 7-4 116.0) (2008 3rd 9-1-1 128.9%) Average score per game is 109.6 points (122.9 points per game same time last year). The Bulldogs’ best in a completed year is 109.7 points last season. Average score against is 94.5 points (95.4 points per game same time last year). Have exceeded the century in seven matches. The Bulldogs kicked 17 centuries in 2008. Have conceded 4 centuries (same as in first 11 rounds last year); last year they conceded nine for the season as a whole. Accuracy for – 57.6 (57.9 in 2008); accuracy against – 54.3 (56.6 in 2008). Scoring shots for – 28.3 (31.5 in 2008). The Bulldogs’ highest in a completed season is 29.0 in 1985. Scoring shots against – 25.5 (24.9 in 2008). Have won four matches by 40 points or more, compared to five for the whole of 2008.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Bruce Kennedy
Where will your team finish
based on its performance to Round 7?

Each year after Round 7 I provide a statistical analysis as a guide to where your team might finish at the end of the season. The survey covers the period 1995-2008, ie the 14 seasons comprising 16 teams.

Which place on the ladder at Rd 7 has spawned most Premierships?

The Premier has come anywhere from top to 10th place at Rd 7. First place is the biggest advantage as you would expect.

First – 4 (Car 1995; Ess 2000; Bri 2002 and 2003)
Second – 2 (WCE 2006; Haw 2008)
Third – none
Fourth – 3 (NM 1996; PA 2004; Gee 2007)
Fifth – 2 (Kan 1999; Bri 2001)
Sixth – none
Seventh - none
Eighth – 1 (Ade 1997)
Ninth – 1 (Ade 1998)
Tenth – 1 (Syd 2005)

This is good news for St Kilda, moderate news for Geelong, and bad for the Bulldogs. The analysis offers encouragement to Port Adelaide and Essendon. Will Brisbane or Carlton break the duck for sixth or seventh placed clubs? Can Collingwood, Hawthorn or Sydney prove lightning can strike twice in the same place?

Which place on the ladder at Rd 7 has produced most Wooden-spooners?

The team in last place at Rd 7 has “won” the wooden spoon on nine occasions, and the team in 15th place has done so on two occasions. Richmond in 2004 and Carlton in 2005 and 2006 have “won” it from elsewhere; the Tigers were 11th at Rd 7, 2004 and Carlton 12th in both 2005 and 2006.

The statistics offer a despairing prospect for Melbourne, and give the Tigers anxiety. Even at this stage the spoon looks a two-way race between those clubs.

How many changes to composition of the eight will there be by season’s end?

In the past four seasons there have been few changes to the top eight occupants of Round 7.  Last season the eight remained unchanged (the only time that has happened in 14 seasons). In fact the only significant change to the order was that of Adelaide and St Kilda swapping fourth and fifth places, and even that occurred only after the Saints’ mammoth defeat of Essendon in the final round.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Bruce Kennedy
Geelong 47–3; best-ever from 50 games

Geelong made it 47–3 from its past 50 games (2007-R6 to 2009-R5); surpassing Essendon's previous record 46-4 in consecutive games (1999-R9 to 2001-R9) ...

Friday, April 24, 2009

Bruce Kennedy
Best 50 matches
Comparison of Essendon (1999-2001) and Geelong (2007-09)

During the period Rd 9, 1999 to Rd 9, 2001, Essendon built an imposing record by winning 46 of its 50 matches played.  This record of 46-4 put the Bombers ahead of Collingwood (1927-29) and Geelong (1951-53) who achieved 45-4-1.

This weekend the Cats, which are currently sitting on 46-3 (since Rd 6, 2007), have the chance to go to the outright lead.  Already Geelong can “claim” the record over the Dons on percentage.  If Geelong defeats Brisbane it will move to 47-3.

In advance of Sunday’s match it is interesting to compare the relative performances of the Bombers and Cats across their periods of dominance.