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Each year after Round 7 I provide a
statistical analysis as a guide to where your team might finish at
the end of the season. The survey covers the decade 1995-2007, ie
the 13 seasons comprising 16 teams.
Which place on the ladder at Rd 7 has spawned most Premierships?
The Premier has come anywhere from top to 10th place at Rd 7. First
place is the biggest advantage as you would expect.
First – 4 (Car 1995; Ess 2000; Bri 2002 and 2003)
Second – 1 (WCE 2006)
Third – none
Fourth – 3 (NM 1996; PA 2004; Gee 2007)
Fifth – 2 (Kan 1999; Bri 2001)
Sixth – none
Seventh - none
Eighth – 1 (Ade 1997)
Ninth – 1 (Ade 1998)
Tenth – 1 (Syd 2005)
This is good news for Geelong, not quite so good for Hawthorn (but
by a mere 0.2 percent!) and bad for the Bulldogs. The analysis
offers encouragement to Adelaide and St Kilda. Will Sydney or North
Melb break the duck for sixth or seventh placed clubs? Can
Collingwood, Port or Brisbane prove lightning can strike twice in
the same place?
Which place on the ladder at Rd 7 has produced most
Wooden-spooners?
The team in last place at Rd 7 has “won” the wooden spoon on eight
occasions, and the team in 15th place has done so on two occasions.
Richmond in 2004 and Carlton in 2005 and 2006 have “won” it from
elsewhere; the Tigers were 11th at Rd 7, 2004 and Carlton 12th in
both 2005 and 2006.
Whilst offering a despairing prospect for Melbourne, and giving the
Eagles anxiety, maybe Essendon and Fremantle can take comfort from
the above figures. Will one of Carlton or Richmond repeat its/their
atrocities of the mid-2000s?
How many changes to composition of the eight will there be by
season’s end?
The average number of changes to the eight is around two. In recent
years there haven’t been very many changes – last season there was
one (Syd in; Bri out) and in 2006 one (StK in; Haw out). In 2005
there were two (Syd (Premier) and Port in; Rch and Fre out). There
has been at least one change in all seasons 1995-2007. On six
occasions there has been only one change; on two occasions two
changes; on two occasions three changes; and on three occasions
there have been four changes (1996, 1997, 1999).
The highest placed teams after Rd 7 to lose their places in the
eight are Collingwood in 1997 (second; 5-2), Adelaide in 1996
(third; 5-2), Collingwood in 2000 (third; 5-2), and Richmond in 2003
(third; 5-2)
The lowest placed teams after Rd 7 to snatch places in the eight are
Brisbane in 1997 (15th; 2-5), West Coast in 2004 (14th; 2-5),
Hawthorn in 1996 (13th; 1-5-1), Essendon in 1998 (13th; 2-5), and
Sydney in 1999 (13th; 3-4).
Six teams have been on 7 wins during the period 1995-2007.
Geelong and Hawthorn have 7 wins in 2008.
Carlton (1995) and Essendon (2000) won flags, while West Coast
(2005) was pipped at the post by the Swans. Hawthorn (2001) slipped
to finish 13-9 and eventually took fourth spot after the finals.
Richmond (1995) and St Kilda (2004) also bowed out in a Preliminary
Final. A top four finish looks a certainty for the Cats and Hawks
this season. Each has a 50 percent chance of a flag. That’s about
what you would expect.
14 teams have been on 6 wins. The Western Bulldogs have 6 wins in
2008.
Six wins pretty much guarantees finals action. However the chance of
a Premiership, or even a Grand Final appearance, is surprisingly
slim.
Of the 14 occasions during the period 1995-2007 teams have been 6-1:
Two were Premiers (Bri 2002; WCE 2006)
In neither of the above seasons was there a team on 7-0 as is the
case this season.
Two were Runners-up (Ess 2001; PA 2007)
Two finished third (Bri 1996; Ade 2006)
Four finished fifth (Syd 1998; WCE 1999; PA 2001; WCE 2007)
One finished sixth (Car 1996)
Three finished seventh (WB 1998; Gee 2000; Mel 2004).
No team has sat 6-0-1 after seven rounds; maybe this confers an
advantage on the Bulldogs.
34 teams have been on 5 wins. Adelaide has 5 wins in 2008.
Five wins means a 79 percent chance of finals action, but only a 41
percent chance of a top four finish. Premierships are scarce for
teams on 5-2; nine percent have achieved the ultimate.
Of the 34 occasions teams have been 5 wins:
Three were Premiers (NM 1996; Bri 2003; PA 2004)
Three were Runners-up (Gee 1995; Col 2002; Bri 2004)
Three finished third (WB 1997; Ess 1999; Rch 2001)
Five finished fourth (Mel 1998; Bri 1999; Kan 2000; Ade 2002; Col
2007)
Three finished fifth (Ess 1995; Gee 1997 and 2005)
Six finished sixth (WCE 1995 and 1997; StK 1998; Mel 2002; Ess 2004;
WB 2006)
Three finished seventh (WCE 2003; Kan 2005; Col 2006)
One finished eighth (Mel 2005)
One finished ninth (Fre 2004)
One finished 10th (Col 1997)
One finished 11th (Gee 1999)
Two finished 12th (Ade 1996; Rch 2005)
One finished 13th (Rch 2003)
One finished 15th (Col 2000)
49 teams have been on 4 wins. St Kilda has 4 wins in 2008.
Four wins means a 57 percent chance of appearing in the finals.
There is a 37 percent chance of a top four finish. The percentage
chance of a team on four wins taking out the Flag is six percent –
slim indeed, but not out of the question.
Three were Premiers (Kan 1999; Bri 2001; Gee 2007)
Six were Runners-up (Syd 1996; NM 1998; Car 1999; Mel 2000; Col
2003; Syd 2006)
Six finished third (NM 1995; Car 2000; PA 2002; Syd 2003; StK 2005;
Kan 2007)
Three finished fourth (PA 2003; Ade 2005; Fre 2006)
Three finished fifth (Ess 2002; Ade 2003; Mel 2006)
Two finished sixth (Car 2001; Haw 2007)
Three finished seventh (Fsc 1995; Gee 1996; Fre 2003)
Two finished eighth (WCE 2002; Ade 2007)
Four finished ninth (Rch 1996 and 1998; PA 1997; StK 2007)
Six finished 10th (StK 1996 and 1999; PA 1998; Haw 2002; Fre 2005;
Bri 2007)
Four finished 11th (Col 1996; Mel 2001; StK 2003; Haw 2006)
One finished 12th (Fre 1997)
Two finished 13th (Ade 1999; WB 2007)
Three finished 14th (Ess 1997; Col 1998; Mel 1999)
One finished 15th (Haw 1995)
51 teams have been on 3 wins. Sydney, North Melb, Collingwood,
Port Adel, Brisbane and Carlton have 3 wins in 2008.
Premierships prospects are higher than you might think for this
group – almost the same as for four wins. Adelaide in consecutive
years, and Sydney in 2005, have been successful from 3-4. However,
there is only a 43 percent chance of a team on three wins making the
finals, and only around a 14 percent chance of a top four finish.
Three were Premiers (Ade 1997 and 1998; Syd 2005)
One was Runner-up (StK 1997)
Three finished fourth (Ess 1996; NM 1997; Gee 2004)
Three finished fifth (WCE 1996; Bri 2000; Syd 2004)
Three finished sixth (WB 1999; Haw 2000; Ess 2003)
Five finished seventh (Syd 1997 and 2001; PA 1999; Kan 2002; Syd
2007)
Four finished eighth (Syd 1999; WB 2000; Ade 2001; StK 2006)
Seven finished ninth (Haw 1999 and 2003; Rch 2000 and 2006; Col
2001; Gee 2002; WB 2005)
Five finished 10th (Syd 2000; WB 2001; Kan 2003 and 2004; Gee 2006)
Four finished 11th (Ade 1995; Car 1997 and 2004; Fre 2007)
Three finished 12th (Gee 1998; Fre 2000; Ess 2007)
Five finished 13th (Fre 1995, 1996 and 2002; WCE 2000; Rch 1997)
Two finished 14th (Rch 2002; Mel 2003)
Two finished 15th (Haw 1997; Fre 1998)
One finished 16th (Rch 2004)
26 teams have been on 2 wins. Richmond and Essendon have 2 wins
in 2008.
There is a 23 percent chance of a bottom end of the finals
appearance. Although no team on 2-5 has won a finals match during
the period, Port did so with 2-4-1 in 2005. The season is by no
means “gone” for the Tigers and Bombers, but they need to start
winning consistently right now to have any chance of playing finals
in 2008.
One finished sixth (PA 2005)
One finished seventh (WCE 1998)
Four finished eighth (Bri 1995 and 1997; Ess 1998; WCE 2004)
Two finished 11th (Ade 2000; Bri 2005)
Five finished 12th (Syd 1995; Rch 1999; Gee 2001; Ade 2004; PA 2006)
Four finished 13th (Haw 1998; Kan 2001; Ess 2005; Bri 2006)
Three finished 14th (WCE 2001; WB 2004; Kan 2006)
Three finished 15th (StK 2001; Car 2003 and 2007)
Three finished 16th (Bri 1998; Car 2005 and 2006)
16 teams have been on 1 win. Fremantle, West Coast and Melbourne
have 1 win in 2008.
Alas! It’s all over red rover for the Dockers, Eagles and Demons who
are 1-6 this season. The Hawks scraped in to the finals from 1-5-1
in 1996 – the draw making all the difference – but no side on 1-6
has managed better than ninth.
One finished eighth (Haw 1996)
One finished ninth (Mel 1995)
One finished 10th (Col 1995)
One finished 11th (Car 1998)
Two finished 12th (WB 2002; Gee 2003)
One finished 13th (Col 2004)
Four finished 14th (StK 1995; Mel 1996; PA 2000; Haw 2005)
Four finished 15th (Fsc 1996; Fre 1999; Haw 2004; Col 2005)
Four finished 16th (Fit 1995; Mel 1997; Car 2002; WB 2003)
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