Here is my analysis and some thoughts on each team’s prospects for the remaining home and away games in 2007.  The analysis is based on a statistical appraisal of seasons 1995 (introduction of the 16-team competition) to 2006 inclusive.

On average one change can be expected in the composition of the eight.  The likelihood of juggling within the eight is high based on the historical record.

I do not think there will be a change in the composition of the current eight this season.

NUMBER OF WINS AT ROUND 15 AND WHAT IT MEANS

HOW YOUR TEAM WILL FINISH THE SEASON, BASED ON THE SITUATION AT ROUND 15

Here is my analysis and some thoughts on each team’s prospects for the remaining home and away games in 2007.  The analysis is based on a statistical appraisal of seasons 1995 (introduction of the 16-team competition) to 2006 inclusive.

On average one change can be expected in the composition of the eight.  The likelihood of juggling within the eight is high based on the historical record.

I do not think there will be a change in the composition of the current eight this season.

NUMBER OF WINS AT ROUND 15 AND WHAT IT MEANS

12 WINS

West Coast in 2006 finished on top of the table and went on to take the Flag.  The other two teams with 12 wins at Rd 15 (Carlton 2000; Port 2002) finished second and first respectively on the ladder.  Neither made it as far as the Grand Final.

Geelong is on 12 wins in 2006.  Plays one other top four side (Kangaroos) and three of the top eight.  Plays interstate twice, but not against major finals aspirants.  Even if the Cats lost three on the way home they would comfortably finish top two.  Should be minor premier.

10 WINS

Teams with 10 wins are also reasonably placed – 36 per cent have finished with 15 wins or more; 28 per cent with 14 wins, and 36 per cent with 13 wins.  Of the 14 occasions a team has been on 10 wins, one has finished first (Adelaide 2005), two have reached second place by season’s end, three have come third and three have come fourth.  The lowest placed finish at Rd 22 is eighth (Bulldogs 2006).  Brisbane in 2001 and 2003 won the flag from 10 wins at Rd 15.

Hawthorn and the Kangaroos are on 10 wins in 2007.  The Hawks play one of the top four (Kangaroos) and four of the top eight.  They don’t play any of the current bottom four.  Travel interstate once (tough one v Swans in final round).  Likely to drop two which should be enough hold on to third or fourth place.

The Kangaroos meet all other members of the top four, and four of the top eight.  Its other games are against teams in the bottom five.  Travel interstate once (Brisbane).  Likely to drop one or two but should hold on to third or fourth place.

9 WINS

Adelaide in 1997 and 1998, and Sydney in 2005 show the way for teams on nine wins at Rd 15, winning the flag in each of those seasons.  There is an even spread of 12 to 15 wins for teams with nine victories at Rd 15.  Of the 30 occasions a team has been on nine wins, one made top place (NM 1998), one came second (Collingwood 2003), five came third, and five came fourth.  On four occasions a team with nine wins at Rd 15 has dropped out of the eight (Richmond 1998, 2000 and 2005; and Geelong 2002).  Richmond fell to twelfth in 2005.  The Tigers also dropped out in 1994 after being 9-6.

West Coast, Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Western Bulldogs are on nine wins in 2007.  The Eagles meet one of the top four (Kangaroos) and only one other top eight side (Sydney).  Travel east three times (Bulldogs, Kangaroos and St Kilda).  Their draw is okay if they find any sort of form, but current indications suggest they will drop at least two matches and slip into the bottom half of the eight.  Two of the Eagles, Swans and Bulldogs are likely to host a final in the first week of the finals.  The Eagles will struggle to host a home final.

Port Adelaide meets two of the top four (Hawthorn and Geelong – both away) but is compensated by playing all of the bottom four.  Travels to Victoria three times.  Likely to drop two but will finish high enough in the eight to host a final in the first week.

Collingwood has the easiest draw of any side in the competition.  The highest placed side it meets is Sydney (at home).  The MCG is its theatre until the finals.  Anything short of seven straight wins leading into the finals would be disappointing.  Should finish second.

The Bulldogs, by contrast, have the toughest draw of all the finals aspirants.  They meet all of the top four, plus Adelaide in Adelaide and go interstate once (Adelaide).  However, they are playing well and could even finish with 14 wins.  Either they, the Swans or the Eagles will grab sixth place, and host a final.

8 WINS

No team has won the flag after eight wins at Rd 15, although some have gone close.  St Kilda 1997, Carlton 1999 and Melbourne 2000 were all runners-up after eight wins at Rd 15.  Of the 32 occasions a team has been on eight wins, one made top place (St Kilda 1997), two came third (Melbourne 2000; Fremantle 2006), three came fourth, three came fifth, two came sixth, four came seventh, three came eighth, and 14 failed to make the finals.

Sydney, Adelaide and Essendon are on eight wins in 2007.  The Swans meet two of the top four (West Coast away and Hawthorn home); they also play Collingwood (away).  Their other opponents lie between 11 and 16 places.  Play outside NSW four times.  Will be pushing to win five, but if they do, they will host a final in the first week.

Adelaide meets one of the top four (Geelong away) and four of the top eight.  Lowest-placed side it plays is Fremantle (13th) so there are no gimmes.  Travel to Victoria three times.  The Crows may well pay the price for having dropped too many close games so far, and finish just short of the finals.  Their crucial match is the derby.  Win that and they are in.  At this stage I’m giving that one to the Power.

Essendon meets two of the top four (Hawthorn and West Coast away); they also play Collingwood.  Also play three of the bottom four.  The Bombers travel to Subiaco twice.  They are likely to struggle to win more than three.  Their poor percentage could also tell against them.  Unlikely to be a finalist.

7 WINS

For teams with seven wins at Rd 15, there is only a glimmer of hope.  The best efforts from there have been 13 wins (Essendon 2003; eighth; and West Coast 2004, seventh).  The analysis suggests either 12 wins (23%) or 9 wins (27%) as the finishing point after Rd 22.  Twelve wins is marginal for achieving a finals berth.  Of the 22 occasions a team has been on seven wins, one made sixth, three made seventh, five made eighth, and 13 have missed the finals.  (Geelong finished fourth and was runner-up in 1994 after having seven wins at Rd 15.)

St Kilda is on seven wins in 2007.  Meets two of the top four (Hawthorn and West Coast) and four of the top eight.  Also plays three of the bottom four.  Travels once (Sydney).  Likely to win four, which won’t be enough to snag a finals spot.  Win five and they would still miss out due to a low percentage.

SIX WINS

Six wins or below is pretty much a passport to a free September.  However, Brisbane 1995 gained eighth place (10 wins and a draw) after having only four wins and a draw at Rd 15.  There was an unusually large cluster of teams with nine or ten wins that season.  In 2005, the Bulldogs and Fremantle improved to 11 wins to fill ninth and tenth places; in 2003 St Kilda (finished in 11^th place with 11 wins) is the next best performer from this group.

Brisbane and Fremantle are on six wins in 2007.  Brisbane could make the finals with six wins, but it is faced with playing every team in the top four.  Travels south three times (Collingwood, Hawthorn, Adelaide).  No chance.

Fremantle needs to win six.  On current form the Dockers wouldn’t stand a chance.  Meet two of the top four and three of the top five.  Travel east three times.  Also meets three sides which would be challenging them for eighth place.  No chance.

Footnote: Since 22 rounds have been played (1970) no team on 6-8-1 (Brisbane this season) has made the finals.  In reality, a draw functions as virtually the best percentage among teams on the same number of wins, ie it is normally worth very little.

FIVE WINS AND BELOW

Carlton, Melbourne and Richmond may win only one match between them during the remainder of this season – the Blues and Demons meet in Rd 22.  To lift off the bottom, the Tigers have to overcome at least three of teams 1-11.  Richmond doesn’t meet any side from 12-15.  Richmond is a shoe in for the wooden spoon..

POSITION ON LADDER AT ROUND 15 AND WHAT THAT MEANS

FIRST PLACE

Teams in first place at Rd 15 have a 6 in 12 chance of finishing first at the end of the home and away matches, and 10 in 12 chance of staying in the top two.  Only West Coast 1999 (sixth) and St Kilda 2004 (third) missed one of the top two places.

Geelong is first after 15 rounds in 2007.  My prediction – minor premier.

SECOND PLACE

Teams in second place are a 10 in 12 chance of remaining in the top four.  Those which slipped were St Kilda 1998 (sixth) and West Coast 2003 (seventh).

Hawthorn is second in 2007.  My prediction – third place.

THIRD PLACE

Teams in third place are an 8 in 12 chance of staying in the top four.  Adelaide slipped to fifth in 1998; Richmond crashed to ninth in 2000, Geelong fell to sixth in 2005 and Melbourne to seventh in 2007..

The Kangaroos are third in 2007.  My prediction – fourth place.

FOURTH PLACE

Teams in fourth place have only a 4 in 12 chance of remaining in the top four.  In 1998 Richmond dropped out of the eight from fourth.

West Coast is fourth in 2007.  My prediction – seventh place.

FIFTH PLACE

Teams in fifth place are more likely than the fourth team to finish in the top four, being a 6 in 12 chance of being there at the end of the home and away games.  Sydney won the 2005 Flag after being fifth at Rd 15.  No team in fifth place at Rd 15 has dropped out of the finals.

Port Adelaide is fifth in 2007.  My prediction – fifth place, and a tiny piece of history.

SIXTH PLACE

Teams in sixth place are a 4 in 12 chance of being in the top four.  No side in sixth place at Rd 15 has finished there.  Three teams have dropped out of the finals from sixth – St Kilda 1999, Geelong 2002, and Richmond 2005.

Collingwood is sixth in 2007.  My prediction – second place.

SEVENTH PLACE

Teams in seventh place are a 10 in 12 chance of playing in the finals.  Sydney (1998 and 2006) broke into the top four.  The two which dropped out of the finals were Melbourne (1995) and Collingwood (2001)

The Western Bulldogs are seventh in 2007.  My prediction – sixth place.

EIGHTH PLACE

Teams in eighth place are a 7 in 12 chance of holding a finals place.  No side in eighth place at Rd 15 has been there at the end – they either improve or drop out.  Fremantle rose to third place in 2006; Melbourne lifted to fourth in 1998.  By contrast, Hawthorn crashed to fifteenth in 1997.

Sydney is eighth in 2007.  My prediction – eighth place.

NINTH PLACE

Teams in ninth place have a 5 in 12 chance of snatching a finals berth.  St Kilda rose from ninth to fourth in 2005.

Adelaide is ninth in 2007.  My prediction – ninth place.

TENTH PLACE

Teams in tenth place are also 5 in 12 chance of making the finals, but none have won a finals match (although Geelong in 1994 reached fourth place and were runners-up after being tenth at Rd 15).  At the other end of the spectrum, Hawthorn fell to fifteenth in 1995.

Essendon is tenth in 2007.  My prediction – 11th place.

ELEVENTH PLACE

Only one team, North Melb in 1997, has made the finals.  In 1997 there were 10 teams on 7 or 8 wins at Rd 15 – a late charger had every chance of making the finals.

St Kilda is eleventh in 2007.  My prediction – tenth place.

TWELFTH AND THIRTEENTH PLACES

Teams in twelfth and thirteenth places have not made the finals.

Brisbane and Fremantle are 12th and 13th in 2007.  My prediction – The Lions and Dockers to swap places.

FOURTEENTH PLACE

Brisbane amazed everyone in 1995 by snatching eighth place from fourteenth place at Rd 15.  The Bears (6-1 in the last seven games) climbed above six sides, none of which could do better than a 3-4 record in the final seven matches.  Very unusual.  Ironically, Brisbane in 1998 is the only team in fourteenth place to annex the wooden spoon.

Carlton is 14th in 2007.  My prediction – 14th place

FIFTEENTH PLACE

Teams in 15^th place have a 6 in 12 chance of improving their position, and a 2 in 12 chance of snatching the wooden spoon.  Richmond in 2004 became the first team to sink to the bottom, and Carlton in 2006 repeated the dose.

Melbourne is 15th in 2007.  My prediction – 15th place.

SIXTEENTH PLACE

Teams holding up the ladder are very likely to continue to do that.  In nine out of 12 seasons the bottom side at Rd 15 has stayed put.  Hawthorn in 1998, and 2004, and Essendon in 2006 managed to escape from the cellar.

Richmond is 16th in 2007.  My prediction – Wooden spoon.

HIGHLIGHTS

The best rises in position after Rd 15

Brisbane 1995 – six places – 14th to eighth (4-11 to 10-12)
North Melb 1998 – five places – sixth to first (9-6 to 16-6)
Hawthorn 1999 – five places – 14th to ninth (5-9-1 to 10-11-1)
St Kilda 2005 – five places – ninth to fourth (8-7 to 14-8)
Fremantle 2006 – five places – eighth to third (8-7 to 15-7)

Teams which have won all their remaining home and away matches from Rd 15

Carlton 1995 – Premier
St Kilda 1997 – Runner-up
North Melb 1998 – Runner-up
Essendon 1999 – Preliminary finalist
Brisbane 1999 – Preliminary finalist
Brisbane 2001 – Premier
Port Adel 2003 – Preliminary finalist
Adelaide 2005 – Preliminary finalist
Fremantle 2006 – Preliminary finalist

The worst falls after Rd 15

Hawthorn 1997 – seven places – eighth to 15th (8-7 to 8-14)
Richmond 2000 – six places – third to ninth (9-6 to 11-11)
Richmond 2005 – six places – sixth to 12th (9-6 to 10-12)
Hawthorn 1995 – five places – 10th to 15th (7-8 to 7-15)
Richmond 1998 – five places – fourth to ninth (9-6 to 12-10)
West Coast 2003 – five places – second to seventh (10-4-1 to 12-8-2)

Special mention
West Coast 2005 – one place – but contrived to vacate top place after being four games clear at Rd 15 (14-1 to 17-5)

Teams which have lost all their remaining home and away matches from Rd 15

Hawthorn 1995 – 10th to 15th (7-8 to 7-15)
Hawthorn 1997 – eighth to 15th (8-7 to 8-14)
Fitzroy 1995 and 1996 – last place (2-13 to 2-20 and 1-14 to 1-21)
Melbourne 1999 and 2003 – no significant change (6-9 to 6-16 and 5-10 to 5-17)
Carlton 2003 – no change (4-11 to 4-18)
Richmond 2004 – 15th to 16th (4-11 to 4-18)