This survey covers the decade 1995-2004, ie the 10 seasons comprising 16 teams.

Five teams have been 7-0 at the end of Rd 7 in the past 10 seasons.  West Coast is 7-0 in 2005.

Seven wins pretty much guarantees finals action.  The likelihood of a Premiership is strong from this position, although still less than a 50:50 proposition.

Of the five occasions teams have been 7-0:

Two were Premiers (Carl 1995; Ess 2000)
Two finished third (Rich 1995; St K 2004)
One finished sixth (Haw 2001)

25 teams have been 5-2.  Melbourne, Geelong, Richmond and North Melb are 5-2 in 2005.

Five wins means a 76% chance of finals action, and close to a 50:50 chance of a top four finish.  Premierships are scarce for teams on 5-2.

Of the 25 occasions teams have been 5-2:

Two were Premiers (NM 1996; Port 2004)
Three were Runners-up (Gee 1995; Col 2002; Bri 2004)
Three finished third (WBdogs 1997; Ess 1999; Rch 2001)
Four finished fourth (Mel 1998; Bri 1999; Kang 2000; Ade 2002)
One finished fifth (Gee 1997)
Five finished sixth (WCE 1995 and 1997; StK 1998; Mel 2002; Ess 2004)
One finished seventh (WCE 2003)
One finished ninth (Fre 2004)
One finished 10th (Col 1997)
One finished 11th (Gee 1999)
One finished 12th (Ade 1996)
One finished 13th (Rch 2003)
One finished 15th (Col 2000)

34 teams have been 4-3.  Fremantle, St Kilda and Adelaide are 4-3 in 2005.

Four wins means a slightly better than 50:50 chance of appearing in the finals.   There is about a one in three chance of a top four finish.  Premierships are only marginally less likely than for teams with five wins after Rd 7.

Two were Premiers (Kan 1999; Bri 2001)
Four were Runners-up (NM 1998; Car 1999; Mel 2000; Col 2003)
Four finished third (NM 1995; Car 2000; PA 2002; Syd 2003)
One finished fourth (PA 2003)
Two finished fifth (Ess 2002; Ade 2003)
One finished sixth (Car 2001)
Three finished seventh (Fsc 1995; Gee 1996; Fre 2003)
One finished eighth (WCE 2002)
Three finished ninth (Rch 1996 and 1998; PA 1997)
Four finished 10th (StK 1996 and 1999; PA 1998; Haw 2002)
Three finished 11th (Col 1996; Mel 2001; StK 2003)
One finished 12th (Fre 1997)
One finished 13th (Ade 1999)
Three finished 14th (Ess 1997; Col 1998; Mel 1999)
One finished 15th (Haw 1995)

40 teams have been 3-4.  Western Bulldogs and Sydney are 3-4 in 2005.

Adelaide is the guiding light for teams on three wins at Rd 7 – the Crows won both their flags from this position.  However, there is only a 45% chance of a team on three wins making the finals, and only around a 10% chance of a top four finish.

Twice were Premiers (Ade 1997 and 1998)
One was Runner-up (StK 1997)
Two finished fourth (NM 1997; Gee 2004)
Three finished fifth (WCE 1996; Bri 2000; Syd 2004)
Three finished sixth (WB 1999; Haw 2000; Ess 2003)
Four finished seventh (Syd 1997 and 2001; PA 1999; Kan 2002)
Three finished eighth (Syd 1999; WB 2000; Ade 2001)
Five finished ninth (Haw 1999 and 2003; Rch 2000; Col 2001; Gee 2002)
Three finished 10th (Syd 2000; WB 2001; Kan 2004)
Three finished 11th (Ade 1995; Car 1997 and 2004)
Two finished 12th (Gee 1998; Fre 2000)
Four finished 13th (Fre 1995, 1996 and 2002; Rch 1997)
Two finished 14th (Rch 2002; Mel 2003)
Two finished 15th (Haw 1997; Fre 1998)
One finished 16th (Rich 2004)

No team has been 2-4-1.  Port Adel and Carlton are 2-4-1 in 2005.

Port Adelaide and Carlton supporters need to study both the 3-4 and 2-5 sections to determine their teams’ chances.  The chances of making the eight would be slightly better than one in three.

17 teams have been 2-5.  Brisbane and Essendon are 2-5 in 2005.

There is a 30% chance of a bottom end of the finals appearance, but no team on 2-5 has won a finals match during the period.  The season is by no means “gone” for teams on two wins, but the Lions and Bombers need to start winning consistently right now to have a chance.

One finished seventh (WCE 1998)
Four finished eighth (Bri 1995 and 1997; Ess 1998; WC 2004)
One finished 11th (Ade 2000)
Four finished 12th (Syd 1995; Rch 1999; Gee 2001; Ade 2004)
Two finished 13th (Haw 1998; Kan 2001)
Two finished 14th (WC 2001; WB 2004)
Two finished 15th (StK 2001; Car 2003)
One finished 16th (Bri 1998)

14 teams have been 1-6.  Hawthorn and Collingwood are 1-6 in 2005.  They were in exactly the same places in 2004 – the bottom two teams on the table.

Woe.  It’s all over once again for the Victorian birds of a feather.

One finished ninth (Mel 1995)
One finished 11th (Car 1998)
Two finished 12th (WB 2002; Gee 2003)
One finished 13th (Col 2004)
Three finished 14th (StK 1995; Mel 1996; PA 2000)
Two finished 15th (Fre 1999; Haw 2004)
Four finished 16th (Fit 1995; Mel 1997; Car 2002; WB 2003)

An observation about the Premier

The Premier has come anywhere from top place at Rd 7 to 11th place; Adelaide was 11th after Rd 7 in 1998.  The team in first place has won the flag twice (Car 1995; Ess 2000 – both were 7-0), which must be reassuring to the Eagles this season.  But the position with the most success is fifth, which has won three Premierships (NM 1996; Bris 2002 and 2003).  The Kangaroos might be comforted slightly by this revelation.

An observation about the Wooden-spooner

The team in last place at Rd 7 has “won” the wooden spoon on seven occasions, and the team in 15th place has done so on two occasions.  Only Richmond in 2004 “won” it from elsewhere; the Tigers were 11th at Rd 7 last year.